Fukuyama Great Disruption

;; ============================================================================
;; DISRUPTION NETLOGO MODEL
;; Based on Francis Fukuyama's "The Great Disruption" (1999)
;; ============================================================================
;;
;; FIXES:
;; 1. Trust/cooperation no longer artificially inflated
;; 2. Phase transitions based on emergent cooperation clusters (theory-grounded)
;; 3. Gradual, realistic recovery through local trust formation
;; 4. Added cooperative cluster detection
;; ============================================================================

globals [
  cooperation-payoff
  sucker-payoff
  temptation-payoff
  defection-payoff
  current-phase
  cooperation-rate
  avg-wellbeing
  avg-trust
  
  ;; Track emergence indicators
  cooperative-clusters        ;; Number of stable cooperation clusters
  avg-cluster-size           ;; Average size of cooperative groups
  norm-strength              ;; Strength of emergent cooperative norms
  ticks-in-phase             ;; How long in current phase
]

turtles-own [
  strategy 
  score 
  wellbeing 
  trust-level
  times-cooperated 
  times-defected 
  cooperative-neighbors
  recovery-rate 
  max-trust-level 
  max-wellbeing-level 
  times-disrupted
  cooperation-bias      ; -0.5 to 0.5: pull toward cooperate (positive) or defect (negative)
  trust-disposition     ; 0.3 to 1.0: how easily trusts (affects trust growth/decay)

  
  ;; NEW: For cluster tracking
  in-cooperative-cluster?     ;; Is agent part of stable coop group?
  cluster-id                  ;; Which cluster belongs to
  local-norm-strength         ;; Local strength of cooperation norms
]

;; ============================================================================
;; SETUP
;; ============================================================================

to setup
  clear-all
  set temptation-payoff 5
  set cooperation-payoff 3
  set defection-payoff 1
  set sucker-payoff 0
  
  set current-phase "stable"
  set ticks-in-phase 0
  set cooperative-clusters 0
  set norm-strength 50
  
ask patches [
  sprout 1 [
    ;; OPTION 1: Traits influenced by initial-cooperation-rate
    ;; Higher cooperation-rate → more cooperation-biased population
    let society-bias (initial-cooperation-rate - 50) / 100  ; -0.5 to +0.5
    set cooperation-bias society-bias + random-float 0.6 - 0.3     ; centered on society norm
    set trust-disposition 0.4 + (initial-cooperation-rate / 200) + random-float 0.4
    
    ;; Starting conditions reflect societal cooperation level
    let base-wellbeing 30 + (initial-cooperation-rate / 2)
    let base-trust 30 + (initial-cooperation-rate / 2)
    set wellbeing max list 0 min list 100 random-normal base-wellbeing 15
    set trust-level max list 0 min list 100 random-normal base-trust 15
    
    ;; Strategy still varies around the rate
    let coop-chance initial-cooperation-rate + (cooperation-bias * 20)
    ifelse random-float 100 < coop-chance 
      [set strategy "cooperate"]
      [set strategy "defect"]
    
    set score 0
    set times-cooperated 0
    set times-defected 0
    
    ;; MORE DIVERSE recovery rates
    set recovery-rate 0.2 + random-float 1.3            ; 0.2 to 1.5 (wider range)
    
    ;; DIVERSE capacity limits
    set max-trust-level 60 + random-float 40            ; 60 to 100
    set max-wellbeing-level 60 + random-float 40        ; 60 to 100
    
    set times-disrupted 0
    set in-cooperative-cluster? false
    set cluster-id -1
    set local-norm-strength 50
      set shape "person"
  ]
]
  
  ask turtles [update-appearance]
  
  calculate-metrics
  detect-cooperative-clusters

  reset-ticks
end 

;; ============================================================================
;; MAIN LOOP
;; ============================================================================

to go
  set ticks-in-phase ticks-in-phase + 1
  
  ;; Theory-based phase transitions
  check-phase-transition-theory-based
  
  if current-phase = "disruption" and ticks-in-phase < 50 [apply-disruption-pressure]
  
  ;; Update local norms BEFORE strategy decisions
  ask turtles [update-local-norms]
  
  ask turtles [    
    update-strategy
    play-game
    update-wellbeing
    update-trust
  ]
  
  calculate-metrics
  detect-cooperative-clusters
  
  ask turtles [ update-appearance ]
  
  tick
end 

;; ============================================================================
;; PHASE TRANSITIONS (THEORY-GROUNDED)
;; ============================================================================

to check-phase-transition-theory-based
  
  ;; DISRUPTION → RECONSTRUCTION
  ;; Trigger: Multiple stable cooperative clusters form (voluntary associations)
  if current-phase = "disruption" [
    if cooperative-clusters >= 3 and 
       avg-cluster-size >= 5 and
       ticks-in-phase > 30 [
      
      let stable-cooperators count turtles with [
        in-cooperative-cluster? and 
        strategy = "cooperate" and
        times-cooperated > times-defected * 2
      ]
      
      if stable-cooperators > (count turtles * 0.15) [
        set current-phase "reconstruction"
        set ticks-in-phase 0
      ]
    ]
  ]
  
  ;; RECONSTRUCTION → STABLE
  if current-phase = "reconstruction" [
    if cooperation-rate > 65 and 
       norm-strength > 65 and
       ticks-in-phase > 90 [
      set current-phase "stable"
      set ticks-in-phase 0
    ]
    
    ;; Safety valve: Accept lower equilibrium after long reconstruction
    if ticks-in-phase > 500 [
      if cooperation-rate > 50 and norm-strength > 50 [
        set current-phase "stable"
        set ticks-in-phase 0
      ]
    ]
  ]
end 

;; ============================================================================
;; COOPERATIVE CLUSTER DETECTION
;; ============================================================================

to detect-cooperative-clusters
  ;; Reset cluster membership
  ask turtles [
    set cluster-id -1 
    set in-cooperative-cluster? false  ;; Clear old markings
  ]
  
  let current-cluster-id 0
  let cluster-sizes []
  
  ask turtles with [strategy = "cooperate" and cluster-id = -1] [
    ;; Start new cluster
    set cluster-id current-cluster-id
    
    let cluster-members (turtle-set self)
    let frontier (turtle-set self)
    
    ;; Flood-fill to find all connected cooperators
    while [any? frontier] [
      let new-frontier turtle-set nobody
      ask frontier [
        let coop-neighbors (turtles-on neighbors) with [
          strategy = "cooperate" and cluster-id = -1
        ]
        ask coop-neighbors [
          set cluster-id current-cluster-id
          set cluster-members (turtle-set cluster-members self)
          set new-frontier (turtle-set new-frontier self)
        ]
      ]
      set frontier new-frontier
    ]
    
    let cluster-size count cluster-members
    
    ;; NEW: Only mark as "in cluster" if cluster is meaningful size
    if cluster-size >= 3 [
      ask cluster-members [set in-cooperative-cluster? true]
      set cluster-sizes lput cluster-size cluster-sizes
    ]
    ;; If cluster too small, agents remain with in-cooperative-cluster? = false
    
    set current-cluster-id current-cluster-id + 1
  ]
  
  set cooperative-clusters length cluster-sizes
  ifelse empty? cluster-sizes
    [set avg-cluster-size 0]
    [set avg-cluster-size mean cluster-sizes]
  
  ;; Calculate social organization correctly
  set norm-strength mean [local-norm-strength] of turtles
end 

;; ============================================================================
;; UPDATE LOCAL NORMS
;; ============================================================================

to update-local-norms
  ;; Fukuyama: norms emerge from repeated local interactions
  let coop-proportion 0
  let my-neighbors turtles-on neighbors
  
  if any? my-neighbors [
    set coop-proportion (count my-neighbors with [strategy = "cooperate"]) / 
                        (count my-neighbors)
  ]
  
  ;; Local norm strengthens when cooperation is common and sustained
  if in-cooperative-cluster? [
    set local-norm-strength min list 100 (local-norm-strength + 0.5)
  ]
  
  ;; Norms weaken in defection-dominated areas
  if coop-proportion < 0.3 [
    set local-norm-strength max list 0 (local-norm-strength - 0.3)
  ]
  
  ;; During disruption, norms erode faster
  if current-phase = "disruption" [
    set local-norm-strength max list 0 (local-norm-strength - 0.5)
  ]
end 

;; ============================================================================
;; STRATEGY UPDATE
;; ============================================================================

to update-strategy
  let my-neighbors turtles-on neighbors
  
  if any? my-neighbors [
    set cooperative-neighbors count my-neighbors with [strategy = "cooperate"]
    
    ;; 1. Imitate successful neighbors (social learning)
    let best-neighbor max-one-of my-neighbors [score]
    if best-neighbor != nobody and [score] of best-neighbor > score 
    [
      let exploration-rate (15 + (100 - trust-level) * 0.3) * (1.5 - trust-disposition)
      if random-float 100 < exploration-rate [set strategy [strategy] of best-neighbor]
    ]
    
    ;; 2. High trust + strong local norms → cooperation (Fukuyama: internalized norms guide behavior)
    if strategy = "defect" and trust-level > 70 and local-norm-strength > 60 [
      if random-float 100 < ((trust-level + local-norm-strength) / 3) [
        set strategy "cooperate"
      ]
    ]
    
    let wellbeing-cutoff avg-wellbeing * 0.4
    ;; 3. Desperation leads to EXPLORATION, not forced cooperation
    if wellbeing < wellbeing-cutoff [
      if random-float 100 < 30 [
        ;; Try the OPPOSITE strategy as experiment
        set strategy ifelse-value (strategy = "cooperate") ["defect"]["cooperate"]
      ]
    ]
    
    ;; 4. Positive cluster effects (Fukuyama: voluntary associations). Being in cooperative cluster makes cooperation more attractive
    if in-cooperative-cluster? and cooperative-neighbors >= 4 [
      if strategy = "defect" and random-float 100 < (local-norm-strength / 2) [set strategy "cooperate"]
    ]
    
    ;; cooperation-bias creates gentle pull toward preferred strategy
    if random-float 1.0 < abs cooperation-bias * 0.15 [
      if cooperation-bias > 0 and strategy = "defect" and cooperative-neighbors >= 2  [set strategy "cooperate"]
      if cooperation-bias < 0 and strategy = "cooperate" and cooperative-neighbors < 3 [set strategy "defect"]
    ] 
  ]
end 

;; ============================================================================
;; TRUST UPDATE
;; ============================================================================

to update-trust
  let trust-change 0
  
  ;; Trust grows from SUSTAINED cooperative experiences
  if strategy = "cooperate" and cooperative-neighbors >= 2 [
    ;; Scale by local norm strength (trust easier in normative environment)
   set trust-change trust-change + (trust-growth-rate * (local-norm-strength / 100) * trust-disposition)

  ]
  
  if cooperative-neighbors >= 5 [
    set trust-change trust-change + trust-growth-rate * 0.3
  ]
  
  ;; Trust erodes from defection or isolation
  if strategy = "defect" or cooperative-neighbors < 1 [
  set trust-change trust-change - (trust-decay-rate * (1.5 - trust-disposition))
  ]
  
  ;; recovery happens naturally through cluster formation
  ;; Fukuyama: trust regenerates through daily interactions, not policy
  if current-phase = "reconstruction" [
    ;; Only slightly faster recovery if in cooperative cluster (positive feedback from supportive environment)
    if in-cooperative-cluster? and trust-change > 0 [
      set trust-change trust-change * 1.2  ;; 20% boost
    ]
  ]
  
  ;; Apply bounds with scar effects
  set trust-level max list 0 (min list max-trust-level (trust-level + trust-change))
end 

;; ============================================================================
;; WELLBEING UPDATE (BALANCED & INERTIAL)
;; ============================================================================

to update-wellbeing
  ;; Wellbeing depends on: trust (35%), social connections (30%), 
  ;; social order (20%), AND economic success (15%)
  
  ;; === 1. Trust component (35 points max) ===
  let trust-component (trust-level / 100) * 35
  
  ;; === 2. Social connection (30 points max) ===
  let social-component 0
  if strategy = "cooperate" [
    set social-component (cooperative-neighbors / 8) * 30
  ]
  
  ;; === 3. Social order (20 points max) ===
  let order-component ((local-norm-strength / 100) * 10) + ((cooperation-rate / 100) * 10)
  
  ;; === 4. Economic success (15 points max)
  let economic-component 0
  let avg-score mean [score] of turtles
  if avg-score > 0 [
    ;; What matters is doing better/worse than average, not absolute score
    let relative-performance (score / avg-score)
    set economic-component min list 15 (relative-performance * 7.5)
  ]
  
  ;; === PENALTIES ===
  let penalty 0
  if trust-level < 25 [
    set penalty penalty + (25 - trust-level) * 0.4
  ]
  if strategy = "cooperate" and cooperative-neighbors < 2 [
    set penalty penalty + 8
  ]
  if current-phase = "disruption" [
    set penalty penalty + 5
  ]
  
  ;; === TARGET WELLBEING ===
  let target-wellbeing max list 0 min list 100 (trust-component + social-component + order-component + economic-component - penalty)
  
  ;; === VERY INERTIAL: 0.5% per tick ===
  set wellbeing max list 0 (min list max-wellbeing-level (wellbeing * 0.995 + target-wellbeing * 0.005))
  
  ;; === SCORE DECAY ===
  if ticks mod 20 = 0 [
    ifelse current-phase = "disruption"
      [set score score * 0.5]
      [set score score * 0.9]
  ]
end 
;; ============================================================================
;; DISRUPTION MECHANICS
;; ============================================================================

to trigger-disruption
  if current-phase = "stable" [
    set current-phase "disruption"
    set ticks-in-phase 0
    
    ask n-of (count turtles * disruption-intensity / 100) turtles [
      set strategy "defect"
      set times-disrupted times-disrupted + 1
      set trust-level max list 0 trust-level - 30
      set max-trust-level max-trust-level * (0.85 ^ times-disrupted)
      set max-wellbeing-level max-wellbeing-level * (0.90 ^ times-disrupted)
    ]
  ]
end 

to apply-disruption-pressure
  ask turtles [
    if random-float 100 < disruption-intensity [
      set trust-level max list 0 trust-level - 1.5
      set local-norm-strength max list 0 local-norm-strength - 0.5
    ]
    
    let trust-cutoff avg-trust * 0.6
    if strategy = "cooperate" and trust-level < trust-cutoff and 
       random-float 100 < (disruption-intensity / 3) [
      set strategy "defect"
    ]
  ]
end 

to play-game
  let my-neighbors turtles-on neighbors
  
  if any? my-neighbors [
    let similar-neighbors my-neighbors with [abs (trust-level - [trust-level] of myself) < 30]
    
    let partner nobody
    ifelse any? similar-neighbors
      [set partner one-of similar-neighbors]
      [set partner one-of my-neighbors]
    
    let my-payoff 0
    
    if strategy = "cooperate" and [strategy] of partner = "cooperate" [
      set my-payoff cooperation-payoff
      set times-cooperated times-cooperated + 1
    ]
    if strategy = "cooperate" and [strategy] of partner = "defect" [
      set my-payoff sucker-payoff
      set times-cooperated times-cooperated + 1
    ]
    if strategy = "defect" and [strategy] of partner = "cooperate" [
      set my-payoff temptation-payoff
      set times-defected times-defected + 1
    ]
    if strategy = "defect" and [strategy] of partner = "defect" [
      set my-payoff defection-payoff
      set times-defected times-defected + 1
    ]
    
    if current-phase = "disruption" and strategy = "defect" [
      set my-payoff my-payoff * (1 + disruption-intensity / 100)
    ]
    
    set score score + my-payoff
  ]
end 
;; ============================================================================
;; METRICS & VISUALIZATION
;; ============================================================================

to calculate-metrics
  ifelse any? turtles [
    set cooperation-rate (count turtles with [strategy = "cooperate"] / count turtles) * 100
    set avg-wellbeing mean [wellbeing] of turtles
    set avg-trust mean [trust-level] of turtles
  ] [
    set cooperation-rate 0
    set avg-wellbeing 0
    set avg-trust 0
  ]
end 

to update-appearance
  ifelse strategy = "cooperate" 
    [set color scale-color blue trust-level 120 0]
    [set color scale-color red (100 - trust-level) 120 0]
  set size 0.5 + (wellbeing / 100)
end